Mid-winter seems a good time to talk about "global warming"… Oooops! I mean "climate change".

One could, of course, speculate about the "carbon footprint" of jetting 10,000 government officials and 2,000 journalists to remote Bali. But others have written about that. Instead, I'd like to summarize what we now know.

1. Global warming is real-but is it serious?

   The average global temperature went up 0.6 degrees Celsius in the 100 years of 20th century. That's not a lot. Questionable computer models predict maybe 5 more degrees increase by the end of the 21st century; but who knows? These guys can't get next week's weather right. Remember the 1970s, when they forecast a "new ice age"? There are also questions about the "heat island" effect of taking temperature measurements near expanding cities. The fact is that global average temperature-climate change-has fluctuated for eons.

2. Yes, human activity contributes to warming-but how much?

   Some senior climatologists link global warming to solar flare activity, which is currently high. The cyclical pattern of solar flares indicates a probable decline-and consequent global cooling-by 2011.

3. CO2 and water vapour are not pollutants; they help agriculture.

   However, all the attention being lavished on so-called "greenhouse gases" has drawn attention away from the fact that we release hundreds of new, mostly untested chemicals into the environment every year. VOCs (volatile organic compounds), NOX and SOX are real pollutants; water and soils are being seriously contaminated. These are real problems we should be addressing.

   There is a link between CO2 and atmospheric temperature-but it's obverse: a temperature rise causes an increase in CO2… about 800 years later.

4. So what's the concern?

   I think our greatest concern should be neglect of real pollution, and the fact that the IPCC is not a panel of scientists, but bureaucrats. The UN has, since the days of Trygve Lee, sought global hegemony. Creating a global panic about a global problem leads to public support for global government. I'm suspicious. Frankly, I don't trust the UN.